Get Ready for a No Good, Very Bad Week
Buckle up for a real bad week to start what is sure to be a bad month.
Three things have my nerves fluttering this week.
The government is almost certainly going to miss the midnight-on-Tuesday deadline for passing a budget. There hasn't been a Federal shutdown in seven years, but not only is one likely this time it's unclear to this analyst how or when the votes will ever reach consensus and open the Federal government back up. To make matters worse, the Trump administration has already pledged to make draconian cuts should the government shut down, leaving large swaths of the Federal government an empty shell. What started with DOGE may very well be finished by this shutdown. Everyone knows it and this reality does not change their positions. To be clear, Congressional Democrats simply cannot back down. To vote for this administration's agenda would be unconscionable. We have reached a breaking point and there will be consequences. Plan accordingly.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has called an extremely unusual meeting -- unprecedented, even -- calling hundreds of Generals and Admirals across the entire military to a meeting that purportedly will focus on fostering the "warrior ethos." Hegseth and Trump have given multiple speeches about this jingoism, so it's easy to ignore this gathering as the most "this meeting could have been an email" event in human history, but since it was announced I have suspected that something far more important will come of it. Trump's sudden announcement on Sunday that he will change his plans for the week to attend have only heightened my "spider sense" that this meeting could have consequences for the American people. This all should be viewed in the context of Trump unexpectedly deploying the National Guard to Portland, Oregon. This also has to be viewed in context of Trump's Executive Order that designates "Antifa" as a terrorist organization. My guess is that Trump will announce plans to use the military against the American people, or at least he will sure up the rhetoric that sets the stage for that to happen.
Sectarian violence cycle intensifies -- I've covered budding extremist movements, and I've also covered how political strife transitions to political violence. Tempo is an extremely important factor. A key commonality of most extremist movements is the idea that the other side represents an existential threat. Events that fit that narrative (even fake events or fake spin of real events) create confirmation bias and intensify these feelings. Eventually, an individual radical may feel that the threat is imminent, and therefore the risks of extreme action are worth the price. This is when individuals conduct terrorist attacks or incidents of political violence. If those acts create reprisal acts, that significantly increases the tempo. At a certain point, enough incidents create chain reactions. It's also important to note that the "truth" does not matter, at all. If there is a shooting or murder or attack and one side perceives that the motives of the perpetrator fit their narrative, that's all that matters. In the case of the Charlie Kirk shooting, radicals of every variety perceived that attack as being the act of their opponent. Again, reality is not important here.
Two other important pieces of context:
The Russians have been attempting to rig an election in Moldova, and the Russians have suffered a bitter and decisive defeat. Russia is also currently losing ground in Ukraine to a very effective Ukrainian attack. The Kremlin will be pissed off and looking for a win, and with the elections in Moldova over the troll farms and disinformation operatives may have more time on their hands. Expect them to work to exacerbate everything I've written above.
The leftist opposition movement, as exemplified by Indivisible and 50501, is hosting nationwide rallies on October 18, now less than 3 weeks away. The far right and Trump himself are obsessed with "Antifa" and leftist political organizations. Expect them to act (and expect the Russians to work on this as well).
Other things to pay attention to:
More and more videos posted to social media show Federal security forces breaking up peaceful protests, trying to detain people who exercise their freedom of speech, or otherwise trying to intimidate. They are not following de-escalation procedures, they are escalating. It's possible they've been ordered to be tougher. It's more likely that they are poorly trained and are being put in situations that they should not be, situations where such confrontations are likely. Either way, it's clear that Trump's new Executive Order is an attack on free speech and it is being perceived as such by those who carry out this regime's orders.
The White Supremacist White House deputy chief fo staff Stephen Miller appears to have an outsized (and possibly unconstitutional, but that doesn't matter anymore) role in directing military strikes without Congressional approval, which does not bode well for our future.
All in all, civil liberties are being erased, many political subplots are coming to an end or turning point, and we appear to be on the verge of a fascist transformation in this country. This October could be very ugly, indeed, and will almost certainly be one for the history books.
Get involved while you can. Speak up while you can. For October 18, attend a protest -- find one near you here, I'll be speaking at this one. I fear that there is a possibility that this will be our last chance to freely express our opinion. Time to stand up and be counted before it's too late.
Editors note: nothing on this blog should ever be considered a call to violence, and it's sad that I even have to write this.
